Here’s who What’s Likely thinks will win the big game

It’s that time of year again. People across the world will gather in living rooms and sports bars Sunday to consume copious amounts of food (calories don’t count that day — it’s science) and watch to see who earns the title of world champion.

This year, it comes down to the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks.

For the tl;dr crowd, here it is:

We’re giving Seattle a 67.9% chance of victory.

For those of you who want the bigger picture, here it is:

Don’t bet on it.

Here’s the dirty little secret of sports betting: the more popular the sporting event, the harder it is to find an advantage.

By now, elite sports bettors from around the world have made their wagers. Barring any late-breaking developments, they’ve collectively settled on Seattle by about 4.5 points. Whether the Seahawks win, or the Patriots win or cover, our model sees it as basically a coin flip.

OK, but what about just betting on who will win the game outright?

Fair question.

Right now, oddsmakers have the moneyline at Seattle -235, meaning you’d have to risk $235 to win $100.

So does the What’s Likely model like Seattle’s chances? Absolutely. It just doesn’t like the price.

The reward of winning $100 if the Seahawks win doesn’t outweigh the risk of losing $235 if they don’t. That’s not a value bet. It’s paying a premium for certainty you don’t actually have.

Out of the thousands of wagers available to sports bettors every day, What’s Likely typically identifies just 5–10 it considers genuinely high value. That means two things are true at the same time:

1. The wager has a realistic chance of winning, and

2. The upside of a win clearly outweighs the downside of a loss.

One important implication of that definition: genuinely profitable bets are usually boring. The most efficient markets (point spreads, totals, and game winners) attract the most money, the most scrutiny, and the sharpest pricing. By the time a casual bettor sees them, any real edge has usually been competed away.

Where value tends to survive is in quieter corners of the board: secondary player props, niche outcomes, or markets that draw less attention and less narrative money. They’re not flashy, and they rarely make for good television segments, but they’re more likely to be mispriced.

To clarify, What’s Likely does not publicly offer sports betting services at this time. Sports betting is simply a clean testing ground. Every prediction has a clear, binary outcome. You’re right or you’re wrong. There’s no narrative spin, no “well actually,” and no room to hide behind vibes.

As of right now, more than 200 bets in, the What’s Likely model wins at a rate of about 54%, with an ROI of roughly +5%. (In sports betting, sustained ROI north of +6% is generally considered elite.)

The goal isn’t to chase short-term spikes or make bold performance claims. It’s to continue refining the model and decision framework with the aim of consistently producing ROI in the +8-10% range, and to be willing to reassess if the results stop supporting that ambition.

What’s Likely exists to do one thing: evaluate how likely an outcome actually is when incentives, information gaps, and human behavior are taken into account.

We’re not trying to predict the future in a mystical sense. We’re trying to answer practical questions people face every day, like:

• Is this outcome actually as likely as I think it is?

• What assumptions am I making, and are they justified?

• Does the potential reward justify the risk being taken?

That framework applies to sports, obviously. But it also applies to business decisions, personal choices, and narratives that sound confident while quietly relying on weak evidence or misaligned incentives.

Sports betting just happens to be the cleanest proving ground. The inputs are public, the incentives are obvious, and the outcomes are binary. There’s no room to argue after the fact. The scoreboard settles it.

That feedback loop lets us test models, assumptions, and reasoning in real time, and refine how we think about uncertainty everywhere else.

So when What’s Likely says Seattle is more likely to win this game than New England, that’s not a hot take. It’s the result of weighing probabilities against prices and walking away when the math says the risk isn’t justified.

Which brings us back to the only question that actually matters: is any wager in this game high value?

Well, there is one answer the model keeps circling back to:

• Sam Darnold, QB-Seattle, over 6.5 rushing yards (+105, BetMGM)

Yes, the best bet is usually a boring one, or no bet at all.

Jacob Brower is the founder and chief strategist of What’s Likely and has served as president of the Springfield, Mo.-based consulting firm ABM Strategies since 2018. His work focuses on disciplined decision-making in uncertain environments. He can be reached at 417-720-2500.