All Posts

I spent the first three months of the year doing something most people only talk about: I tried to beat sports betting like it was a job. Not like a guy on a couch on Sunday. Like a system. A process. A model. Discipline, tracking, line shopping, closing line value, bankroll management — all of it. And I learned a lot. First, the obvious part: it was a great way to train the model. If you want to teach a prediction system how to think in probabilities, there are few better re

The most interesting thing about well-trained AIs is watching them develop their own personalities. You give them the right inputs and train them on expert advice, and eventually they settle into patterns that feel less like code and more like temperament. What’s Likely is a bit of a Larry David–esque curmudgeon. It doesn’t care about impressing you and has little tolerance for nonsense. It prefers modest straight-bet wins and shrugs off the losses that come with them. While

It’s that time of year again. People across the world will gather in living rooms and sports bars Sunday to consume copious amounts of food (calories don’t count that day — it’s science) and watch to see who earns the title of world champion. This year, it comes down to the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. For the tl;dr crowd, here it is: We’re giving Seattle a 67.9% chance of victory. For those of you who want the bigger picture, here it is: Don’t bet on it. He

I was a pretty good long-distance runner back in the day. I trained like a maniac and gave it my all on race day. I’ll never forget someone once saying to me, “Wow, you must really enjoy racing.” Caught off guard, I responded, “I hate it!” They looked confused. “If you enjoy racing, you’re not running hard enough,” I explained. Which was true. I didn’t enjoy racing. What I did enjoy was winning. I enjoyed the feeling of accomplishment when all that hard work paid off. I enj

The 4 most inspirtional words you will ever read. I’ve always loved football — not just the spectacle, but the strategy. The momentum...

Go look in your pantry. No, really. I’ll wait. What did you see? Probably the same brands you’ve been buying for years, maybe even...

Jacob Brower, founder and chief strategist of What’s Likely, spoke at 1 Million Cups - Springfield today. He was interviewed by Trina...

If you read my article a couple weeks ago, you know the Gas Cap Rule , the one from Sling Blade: start with the most obvious explanation...

From misplaced confidence to missed opportunities — and what could’ve stopped it We’ve all worked for that one boss. The one who comes...

A broken lawnmower. A guy out of ideas. And a mechanic who solves it in less than 15 seconds — in an underrated moment from Sling Blade...

When I was a kid, I used to read my hometown newspaper, the McDonald County Press (originally the Anderson Graphic ), cover to cover...