Jacob Brower

I spent the first three months of the year doing something most people only talk about: I tried to beat sports betting like it was a job. Not like a guy on a couch on Sunday. Like a system. A process. A model. Discipline, tracking, line shopping, closing line value, bankroll management — all of it. And I learned a lot. First, the obvious part: it was a great way to train the model. If you want to teach a prediction system how to think in probabilities, there are few better real-world...

The most interesting thing about well-trained AIs is watching them develop their own personalities. You give them the right inputs and train them on expert advice, and eventually they settle into patterns that feel less like code and more like temperament. What’s Likely is a bit of a Larry David–esque curmudgeon. It doesn’t care about impressing you and has little tolerance for nonsense. It prefers modest straight-bet wins and shrugs off the losses that come with them. While friends send me...

It’s that time of year again. People across the world will gather in living rooms and sports bars Sunday to consume copious amounts of food (calories don’t count that day — it’s science) and watch to see who earns the title of world champion. This year, it comes down to the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. For the tl;dr crowd, here it is: We’re giving Seattle a 67.9% chance of victory. For those of you who want the bigger picture, here it is: Don’t bet on it. Here’s the dirty...