What makes What’s Likely so accurate. (You’ll hate the answer.)

Go look in your pantry. No, really. I’ll wait.

What did you see? Probably the same brands you’ve been buying for years, maybe even decades. You feel a certain attachment to them, a loyalty even. You trust them. You reach for them automatically at the store. And if someone challenged your choice — like saying Brand X peanut butter is better than your beloved Brand Y — you might even get a little defensive.

But here’s the truth: that “loyalty” wasn’t the result of some long, reasoned decision-making process. It was formed quietly, over time, by the repetition of exposure, a few grocery store layouts, maybe your parents’ habits, and a hundred ads you don’t even remember seeing. Your brain thinks it chose those brands. Really, it’s just following a script.

And it’s not just peanut butter. It’s restaurants. It’s the websites you visit, the clothes you wear, the kind of people you date, and the opinions you’re willing to argue about at family get-togethers. You believe you're making conscious, deliberate choices. But, in most cases, your brain made up its mind long before you were aware a decision was even on the table.

That isn’t an insult. It’s just how human brains work. And it’s the entire reason What’s Likely works as well as it does.

Most people assume forecasting human behavior is guesswork. The truth is, people are so consistent it’s almost unfair. The best marketers and strategists know what you’re going to do, before you even know what you’re going to do.

We like to call ourselves logical, but logic only kicks in under the most extreme circumstances. As social psychologist Jonathan Haidt once said, “The conscious, rational brain isn't the Oval Office. It's the press office, issuing explanations for actions we've already taken.”

According to Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman, 95% of our decisions are made subconsciously. Just FIVE PERCENT — one in 20 — are made by the part of your brain you think is in charge.

To put that in perspective, what do you think your odds are of being a millionaire? If you live in the United States, it’s about 8.5 percent.

So, if you took a random sample of 200 Americans and compared it to your 200 most recent decisions, millionaires would outnumber your conscious decisions, 17–10.

That’s a pretty high point spread at any sportsbook.

People whose livelihoods depend on forecasting have spent years watching people make the same choices over and over again — no matter how many “options” are in front of them.

You’ve seen it, too — we all have. That one frequent commenter on your local news site. The topic doesn’t matter — crime, politics, school lunches. All you have to do is see their name and profile pic, and you already know their opinion before reading a word.

We can’t predict with 100% certainty what you’ll do. But we can get a lot closer than you’d like to admit.

• There’s no guarantee you buy the same brand of peanut butter as your parents — but you probably do.

• There’s no guarantee you’re still going to the same handful of restaurants you were a year ago — but you probably are.

• There’s no guarantee you’ll keep going back to the same “type” of partner — but you probably will.

We are, overwhelmingly, creatures of habit. Not because we’re lazy, but because our brains evolved to seek safety, not optimization. And “safe” doesn’t mean healthy, fulfilling, or even enjoyable. It means familiar.

That’s why you keep going back to the same foods, the same habits, the same mistakes. Not because you want to, but because your brain equates repetition with survival. Once it gets comfortable, it resists change with everything it has, even when that change would make your life better.

What’s Likely accounts for that. It doesn’t try to model perfect logic. It models familiar patterns, shaped by exposure, emotion, momentum, and the deeply ingrained shortcuts we’ve all developed over time.

It doesn’t predict what someone should do. It forecasts what they’re most likely to do, based on what people actually do in the real world, not in idealized thought experiments.

That’s the difference between guessing and forecasting. And that’s what gives the What’s Likely model its power.

What’s Likely is a decision-support tool built to forecast the most likely path to success, using real-world behavioral patterns instead of wishful thinking.

You’re not as in control as you think. But that doesn’t make you powerless. It means that once you understand how the human mind really works, you can finally start making decisions that move you forward instead of just going in circles.

And when you’re ready to stop guessing? We’ll show you What’s Likely.

Jacob Brower is the founder and chief strategist of What’s Likely, a decision-support tool that forecasts the most probable path to success. He is also president of Archer's Bow Media & Marketing and ABM Strategies.

Curious what What’s Likely could do for you? Book a free consultation and let’s find out.